Energy Scenarios South Tyrol
The energy transition in South Tyrol means not only climate protection but also economic opportunities. While today millions flow out of the region for fossil fuels, future investments in renewable energy remain as local value creation in South Tyrol.
Scenario status: 2025. These scenarios remain valid as a reference until an update is published.
Most energy costs flow out of the region for fossil fuels
Initial investments in renewable energy and efficiency remain in the region
Complete decarbonization with maximum local value creation through investments
Transformation Pathway to Climate Neutrality
The path to decarbonization proceeds step by step with concrete milestones
South Tyrol Climate Plan 2040
The South Tyrolean Provincial Government adopted the South Tyrol Climate Plan 2040 in July 2023. The targets of -55% CO₂ reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2040 are officially established and form the basis for the scenarios presented here.
- — Mt CO₂ emissions
- High dependency on fossil fuels
- €— million local value creation
- Beginning of energy transition planning
- Expansion of rooftop PV systems
- First heat pump subsidies
- Pilot projects for e-mobility
- Energy efficiency renovations start
- —% CO₂ reduction achieved
- 45% electric cars
- Massive heat pump installation
- €— million local investments
- Natural gas phase-out in buildings begins
- Hydrogen infrastructure established
- Industrial electrification advanced
- District heating fully decarbonized
- —% CO₂ reduction achieved
- Complete e-mobility (cars)
- Bidirectional charging (V2G)
- €— million local value creation
- Energy self-sufficiency through renewables
- South Tyrol as a model for Alpine regions
Scenarios at a glance
The following scenarios show different decarbonization pathways for South Tyrol. Explore the impacts on CO₂ emissions, total costs, and regional value creation.
Select Scenario
Cost structure
Final energy consumption [TWh]
CO₂ emissions by sector
Comparison of INEMAR 2019 with the model for 2019
Key Technologies Explained
Clear explanations of the most important energy transition technologies
Heat Pumps
Efficient heating technology that uses ambient heat
Heat pumps extract heat from the environment (air, ground, water) and raise it to a higher temperature level. With 1 kWh of electricity they produce 3–5 kWh of heat. They replace oil and gas heating and are especially efficient in combination with underfloor heating and good insulation.
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G)
EVs as mobile electricity storage
V2G enables electric vehicles not only to charge but also feed electricity back into the grid. The batteries act as flexible storage for surplus solar and wind power. Particularly valuable in South Tyrol due to high PV production during the day and charging demand in the evening.
Battery Storage
Storage of renewable energy
Lithium‑ion batteries store surplus electricity from PV systems for use at night or during cloudy periods. They raise self‑consumption from 30% to up to 70% and stabilize the grid thanks to fast response to fluctuations.
Power-to-Gas (Hydrogen)
Converting electricity into storable gas
Electrolyzers split water into hydrogen and oxygen using surplus green electricity. Green hydrogen can be stored, transported, and used for industrial high‑temperature processes or as a fuel. It is important for sectors that are hard to electrify.
Sector Coupling
Linking electricity, heat and mobility
Sector coupling intelligently connects electricity, heat and transport. Surplus green electricity is used for heat pumps, e‑mobility or hydrogen production. This increases system flexibility and enables higher shares of renewables.
Energy Efficiency
Less energy for the same output
Energy‑efficient building retrofits (insulation, new windows) reduce heat demand by 50–80%. LED lighting saves 80% electricity compared to incandescent bulbs. Efficient industrial processes lower energy consumption. Energy efficiency is often the most cost‑effective form of decarbonization.
Methodology & Modeling
Scientifically grounded scenarios for South Tyrol’s energy future
Scenario status: 2025. These scenarios serve as a reference until an update is published.
How does energy system modeling work?
To plan the best energy future for South Tyrol, we use a computer-based model that evaluates thousands of possible technology combinations. For each combination, it simulates how much energy is produced and consumed in every hour of the year—similar to a detailed weather forecast, but for the energy system.
Hourly calculation of energy generation and consumption for each technology mix
Automatic search for the best solutions between CO₂ reduction and costs
Selection of optimal pathways for 2030 (-55% CO₂) and 2040 (climate neutrality)
EnergyPLAN
Simulation software from Aalborg University for hourly energy flows
EPLANopt
Optimization algorithm from Eurac Research for best technology mixes
8,760 hours
Each hour of the year is simulated individually for maximum accuracy
Sector coupling
Integration of electricity, heat, transport and industry
Connection to climate plan monitoring
These energy scenarios complement the official South Tyrol climate plan monitoring. Visit www.eurac.edu/en/data-in-action/climate-change-monitoring for current data on climate development in South Tyrol.
Detailed Results
Select scenario
Conclusions for Future Scenarios (2030-2040)
HEAT
Natural gas phase-out:
Drastic reduction or complete phase-out of gas boilers, leading to a sharp decline in natural gas imports and related CO₂ emissions.
Massive heat pump deployment:
Heat pumps (air-source and ground-source) become the dominant heating technology, especially in residential and tertiary sectors.
Thermal storage integration:
Increased use of water-based thermal storage (tanks, district heating storage) to balance peak loads and integrate variable renewable electricity.
CHP biomass:
Remains as a renewable baseload, covering district heating networks and rural areas—but likely optimized for seasonal balance rather than daily peak coverage.
ELECTRICITY
Rising demand:
Overall electricity demand increases significantly (often +30-70% in scenarios), driven by electrification of heating, transport, and industry.
PV boom:
High deployment of distributed photovoltaic systems (residential, commercial, agrivoltaics), making solar the backbone of South Tyrol's local electricity generation (next to hydropower).
Need for flexibility:
- Battery storage (stationary and mobile via EVs)
- Flexible consumers (heat pumps with smart control, industry with demand response)
- Electricity exchange (with neighboring regions to balance surpluses and deficits)
INDUSTRY
Electrification push:
Industrial heat pumps cover low- to medium-temperature processes (<150°C).
Hydrogen uptake:
Targeted use of green hydrogen for medium- to high-temperature processes where electrification is less viable (metal processing, ceramics).
Sector coupling:
Local power‑to‑hydrogen infrastructure (electrolyzers, H₂ storage) integrated with the electricity system.
TRANSPORT
BEV dominance:
Battery electric vehicles become the standard for passenger transport; combustion cars decline sharply.
Vehicle-to-Grid:
EVs provide flexibility and act as distributed storage through smart charging and feed‑in.
Public transport:
Electrification and expansion of public transport reduce emissions and improve modal shift.
For heavy‑duty and long‑haul transport, green hydrogen and e‑fuels may still play a role.
Applications of the Modelling Methodology
Our modelling methodology has been successfully applied across various regions and countries in Europe.
Lower Austria
Regional energy modelling for the province of Lower Austria focusing on sustainable energy planning.
Salzburg
Regional energy modelling for the province of Salzburg to support the energy transition at the state level.
Italy
National energy scenario analysis for Italy focusing on decarbonization pathways.
Piedmont Region
Energy modelling for the Piedmont region for regional energy planning.
6 EU Countries
Comparative analysis for Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden.
PLANtoACT LIFE – 5 EU Regions
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (FR), Lombardy (IT), Alba County (RO), Oberland (DE), Porto Metropolitan Area (PT).
Energy scenarios for your region
In South Tyrol we have shown how research, data, and policy can be combined into a robust energy‑transition strategy. We transfer this know‑how to other regions and co‑develop scenarios that make pathways to climate neutrality visible.
Further Information
Scientific publications, data sources, and further materials on the methodology and the energy scenarios for South Tyrol
Modeling & Methodology
Multi-objective optimization algorithm coupled to EnergyPLAN software: The EPLANopt model
Prina, M.G., Cozzini, M., Garegnani, G., Manzolini, G., Moser, D., Filippi Oberegger, U., et al. • Energy, 2018; 149: 213–221
Development of the EPLANopt model for multi-objective optimization of energy systems.
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.02.050
View publicationTransition pathways optimization methodology through EnergyPLAN software for long-term energy planning
Prina, M.G., Lionetti, M., Manzolini, G., Sparber, W., Moser, D. • Applied Energy, 2019; 235: 356–368
Methodology for optimizing long-term energy transition pathways using EnergyPLAN.
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.10.099
View publicationEvaluating near-optimal scenarios with EnergyPLAN to support policy makers
Prina, M.G., Johannsen, R., Sparber, W., Østergaard, P.A. • Smart Energy, 2023; 100100
Evaluation of near-optimal energy scenarios for evidence-based policy support.
DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2023.100100
View publicationMachine learning as a surrogate model for EnergyPLAN: speeding up energy system optimization at the country level
Prina, M.G., Dallapiccola, M., Moser, D., Sparber, W. • Energy, 2024: 132735
Using machine learning to accelerate country-level energy system optimization.
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.132735
View publicationOpen Source Code
EPLANopt — Open Source Optimization Model
Prina, M.G. (matpri) • GitHub repository
Open-source code for the EPLANopt multi-objective optimization model.
View publicationSouth Tyrol Climate Plan
South Tyrol Climate Plan 2040
Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol • Strategy document
Official provincial climate plan with targets and measures.
View publicationSouth Tyrol Climate Plan Monitoring
Eurac Research • Online platform
Monitoring tool for tracking South Tyrol's climate targets.
DOI: 10.57749/196n-zr24
View publicationSector Coupling & Decarbonization
EnergyPLAN – Advanced analysis of smart energy systems
Lund, H., Thellufsen, J.Z., Østergaard, P.A., Sorknæs, P., Skov, I.R., Mathiesen, B.V. • Smart Energy, 2021; 1: 100007
Advanced analysis capabilities of the EnergyPLAN software for smart energy systems.
DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2021.100007
View publicationClassification and challenges of bottom-up energy system models - A review
Prina, M.G., Manzolini, G., Moser, D., Nastasi, B., Sparber, W. • Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020; 129: 109917
Comprehensive review and classification of bottom-up energy system models.
DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.109917
View publicationElectrification of transport and residential heating sectors in support of renewable penetration
Bellocchi, S., Manno, M., Noussan, M., Prina, M.G., Vellini, M. • Energy, 2020; 196
Scenarios for sector coupling through electrification of transport and heating in Italy.
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117062
View publicationData Sources
INEMAR - Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
Provincial Agency for Environment and Climate Protection • Emissions inventory 2019
Basis for South Tyrol's CO₂ emissions data.
View publicationQuestions about the methodology?
For detailed information about modeling and the scenarios, please contact the research team at Eurac Research.
renewable.energy@eurac.eduQuestions & Answers
Answers to the most important questions about decarbonization in South Tyrol
Term Definitions
Clear explanations of the most important technical terms
BEV
Battery Electric Vehicle – a vehicle powered solely by electricity stored in a battery.
CO₂eq
CO₂ equivalent – unit that expresses the climate impact of different gases relative to CO₂.
Decarbonization
Process of reducing CO₂ emissions by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources.
EnergyPLAN
Computer program for hourly energy system analysis developed at Aalborg University.
EPLANopt
Optimization model that combines EnergyPLAN with a multi‑objective algorithm to identify optimal energy system configurations.
ktoe
Kilotons of oil equivalent (ktoe) – energy unit corresponding to 1,000 tons of crude oil (approx. 11.63 GWh).
ktCO₂eq
Kilotons of CO₂ equivalent – 1,000 tons of CO₂ or the equivalent amount of other greenhouse gases.
Pareto Front
Set of optimal solutions where no objective can be improved without worsening another (e.g., costs vs. CO₂).
Power-to-Gas
Conversion of electricity into gaseous energy carriers such as hydrogen or methane via electrolysis.
Power-to-Heat
Conversion of electricity into heat, e.g., via heat pumps or electric heaters.
Sector Coupling
Smart integration of the electricity, heat, and mobility sectors for efficient use of renewable energy.
V2G
Vehicle-to-Grid – technology that allows EVs to feed electricity back into the grid and act as mobile storage.
Institute for Renewable Energy
We develop and test the building blocks for a climate‑neutral future for South Tyrol. In the Alpine microcosm we create practical energy solutions that can serve as a global model.
Regional model region
We study energy systems in the concrete regional context—with real data, grids, and infrastructure. This yields robust insights for South Tyrol and other regions.
Scalable solutions
From components to buildings to regional energy systems—we provide blueprints for transforming entire regions.
Research meets market
With us, companies shorten the path from idea to market‑ready, certified product through excellent lab infrastructure and expertise.
Shaping the energy future together
Whether research partnership, product development, or knowledge transfer—discover the possibilities for collaboration with our institute.
This research has been carried out within the PNRR research activities of the consortium iNEST (Interconnected North-East Innovation Ecosystem) funded by the European Union Next-GenerationEU (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR) Missione 4 Componente 2, Investimento 1.5 D.D. 1058 23/06/2022, ECS_00000043 – Spoke1, RT3A, CUP I43C22000250006).
This presentation reflects only the authors' views and opinions; neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.
